When Mark Carney took the Liberal helm last year, few expected the party’s fortunes to swing so fast. The latest Leger federal poll, from March 2026, puts Liberal support at 49% among decided voters — a 14‑point lead over the Conservatives at 35% (Leger 360). Here’s what the numbers mean, how they compare with other polls, and what they suggest about the next election.

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Polling firm: Leger ·
Latest poll date: March 2026 ·
Liberal support (PLC): 49% ·
Conservative support (PCC): 35% ·
Liberal lead: 14 percentage points ·
Region: Canada (national)

Quick snapshot

1Confirmed facts
  • Liberals at 49% among decided voters, Conservatives at 35% (Leger 360)
  • 59% of Canadians satisfied with Carney government (Leger 360)
  • 61% approval rating for Mark Carney (Leger 360)
2What’s unclear
  • Whether the 14‑point lead holds until election day
  • Exact regional breakdowns for March 2026 not published in summary
  • Full methodology details (weighting, panel recruitment) not disclosed in press release
  • Whether Leger’s online panel underrepresents off‑line voters
3Timeline signal
  • PLC rose +2 points since January 2026, PCC fell -3 points (Leger PDF Report)
4What’s next
  • Next Leger federal poll expected in April/May 2026 (Qc125)
  • Qc125 will update seat projections based on new data (Qc125)
Data from Leger’s March 2026 federal poll
Metric Value
Polling Firm Leger
Latest Poll Date March 2026
Liberal Support (decided voters) 49%
Conservative Support (decided voters) 35%
Sample Size 1,627
Margin of Error ±2.5%

The implication: Leger’s data shows a decisive Liberal lead, but the margin of error and sample size leave room for fluctuation.

What is the latest Leger federal poll?

When was the poll conducted?

The poll was conducted in March 2026, after Mark Carney had been prime minister for several months. Leger surveyed 1,627 Canadian adults through its online panel (Leger PDF Report).

What are the top-line results?

  • Liberals: 49% among decided voters (up 2 points since January)
  • Conservatives: 35% (down 3 points)
  • Other parties: support in single digits

Among all respondents (including undecideds), the Liberal lead narrows to 38% vs 34% for the Conservatives, according to analysis on Les chiffres balado.

Bottom line: Carney’s Liberals are solidly ahead, but the undecided share — about 12% — leaves room for shifts before election day. Voters who want change will need to assess whether Poilievre can close the gap.

The pattern: the gap narrows when undecided voters are included, signaling that the race is not locked in.

How do Leger federal polls compare to other national polls?

What are the key differences in methodology?

Leger uses an online panel recruited through partners and targeted ads, while Ipsos (Ipsos Canada) and the Angus Reid Institute (Angus Reid Institute) rely on online/phone hybrid or telephone‑only samples. Online panels allow larger samples at lower cost but risk over‑representing internet‑active users.

How do results align with Ipsos and Angus Reid?

The aggregated trend from Qc125 (Qc125 aggregator) shows Leger, Ipsos, and Angus Reid all pointing to a Liberal lead in spring 2026, though the exact margin varies. Leger’s 14‑point gap is at the upper end; Ipsos often shows a 10–12 point lead.

One pattern: Leger’s online panel tends to produce slightly higher Liberal numbers than phone‑based polls, possibly because of differing response rates.

Why this matters

The methodological differences mean no single poll is definitive. For investors and voters, watching the moving average — not any one release — gives a clearer picture of the race.

The catch: cross-pollster consistency on direction, but variation on magnitude, means relying on one firm can mislead.

What methodology does Leger use for federal polling?

What is Leger’s typical sample size and margin of error?

  • Sample size: ~1,500–1,627 respondents
  • Margin of error: ±2.5% (19 times out of 20)
  • Mode: online panel (self‑administered)

Source: Leger March 2026 PDF.

How does Leger weight its data?

Leger applies demographic weights for age, gender, region, and language to match census figures. The weighting adjusts for known biases in online panels, such as over‑representation of older respondents (Leger 360).

The catch

Weighting can correct for demographics but not for attitudinal differences — people who join online panels may be more politically engaged than the average Canadian. That could inflate satisfaction numbers.

The implication: methodological rigor is high, but the panel’s self-selection remains a limitation for generalizing to all Canadians.

What do the latest Leger polls indicate for the next Canadian federal election?

How has support changed since the last election?

The 2025 federal election produced a Liberal minority under Carney. Since then, Leger tracking shows Liberal support rising from about 43% in early 2026 to 49% by March, while Conservative support slipped from 39% to 35% (YouTube – Sondage Léger Discussion).

What are the projections for seat counts?

Electoral modelers at Qc125 project that a 49% share of the popular vote could translate into a comfortable Liberal majority, especially if the Conservative vote is inefficiently distributed. However, the model also notes that regional swings — particularly in Quebec and Ontario — could reduce the seat haul.

A majority of Canadians (55%) think Carney will be elected prime minister regardless of their own voting intention, according to Leger data cited on YouTube – Sondage Léger Discussion.

Bottom line: If the Leger numbers hold, Carney is on track for a majority. But the undecided vote (roughly 12%) and the possibility of a strong NDP campaign mean the race could tighten. For Conservative strategists, the path to victory requires peeling off Liberal‑leaning voters in the suburbs.

The pattern: seat projections favor Carney, but regional distribution and turnout will determine whether that translates to a majority.

Where can I find the most recent Leger federal poll data?

Official Leger website

Leger 360 publishes every federal survey with a press release and PDF. The site also archives past results.

Qc125 aggregator

Qc125 (Philippe J. Fournier) combines Leger with other pollsters to produce smoothed trends and seat projections. Updated weekly.

Wikipedia list of polls

Wikipedia maintains a running table of all federal polls, including Leger’s, with dates and sample sizes.

What to watch

For the most current numbers, check Leger’s press release page and Qc125’s weekly update. Avoid relying on any single poll — the average tells a more reliable story.

The implication: cross-referencing multiple sources provides a more robust picture than any single poll.

Three pollsters, each with a different approach: the pattern matters more than the exact number.

Pollster Sampling mode Sample size (typical) Frequency Reported lead (March 2026)
Leger Online panel 1,500–1,627 Monthly 14 points (PLC 49%, PCC 35%)
Ipsos Online + phone 1,000–1,500 Monthly 10–12 points (est.)
Angus Reid Institute Online panel 1,500–2,000 Quarterly 11 points (est.)

Data sources: Leger (PDF), Ipsos (Ipsos Canada), Angus Reid Institute (Angus Reid Institute). The pattern: all three show a Liberal lead, but Leger’s margin is the widest.

What this means: Leger’s online-only method may capture a more Liberal-leaning segment, while mixed-mode polls show a tighter race.

Timeline of key Leger poll milestones

  • July 2025 – Qc125 begins tracking federal election polling for the 2025 cycle (Qc125).
  • March 5, 2026 – Leger releases its March poll showing Liberal 49%, Conservative 35% (Leger 360).
  • May 3, 2026 – Qc125 updates its aggregated model incorporating the latest Leger numbers (Qc125).
The trade-off

Carney’s high government satisfaction (59%) and personal approval (61%) are strong tailwinds. But 33% of Canadians remain dissatisfied — a bloc the Conservatives will target heavily in the campaign.

The pattern: approval numbers are strong, but the dissatisfied minority could shift the race if turnout patterns change.

Confirmed facts

  • Leger poll from March 2026 shows Liberal at 49% among decided voters (Leger 360).
  • Liberal party has a 14-point lead over Conservatives.
  • Poll conducted after Mark Carney became Liberal leader.
  • 59% satisfaction with Carney government; 61% approve of Carney personally (Leger 360).

What’s unclear

  • Whether this lead will hold until the next election.
  • Exact sample size of the latest poll not specified in the press release snippet (actual n=1,627 from PDF).
  • Methodology details not fully disclosed in the press release.
  • Regional breakdowns are not publicly available for the March 2026 wave.

What the pollsters are saying

A new Leger poll shows that Carney’s Liberals rise to 49% and lead the Conservatives by 14 points.

— Leger, March 2026 press release (Leger 360)

55% of Canadians believe Mark Carney will be elected Prime Minister — even among those who say they’ll vote for another party.

— Analysts on Les chiffres balado (YouTube)

For Canadian voters watching the 2026 race, the choice is shaping up as a referendum on Carney’s early performance. The 14‑point gap is the largest since the election and reflects genuine satisfaction — but the undecided share and the possibility of a Conservative resurgence under Poilievre mean the Liberal lead is not a coronation. For investors and policy watchers, the next Leger poll will show whether the honeymoon holds. If it does, a Liberal majority becomes the baseline scenario; if it erodes, the race reopens.

Additional sources

leger360.com, fr.wikipedia.org

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Frequently asked questions

What is the margin of error in Leger polls?

Leger typically reports a margin of error of ±2.5% for a sample of around 1,500, 19 times out of 20. The March 2026 poll had a sample of 1,627 (Leger PDF Report).

How often does Leger release federal polls?

Leger publishes a national federal survey roughly once a month. The schedule can vary around leadership changes or during election campaigns.

Are Leger polls considered reliable?

Leger is one of Canada’s most established polling firms and adheres to industry standards. Its online panel methodology is widely used, though it can overrepresent politically engaged voters. In the 2025 election, Leger’s final pre‑election numbers were within 2% of the actual result for the major parties.

How does Leger recruit its survey panel?

Leger recruits panelists through online advertisements, partner sites, and targeted outreach. The panel is then weighted to match census demographics.

What is the difference between Leger and other pollsters like Ipsos?

Leger uses an online panel exclusively, while Ipsos uses a hybrid of online and telephone interviews. This can produce small differences in results, especially on questions about government satisfaction.

Can I trust the latest Leger poll for election predictions?

No single poll should be used as a prediction. Track the average of several pollsters over time. Leger’s data is useful for spotting trends, but the final election outcome depends on campaign dynamics and turnout.

How do I interpret the poll numbers in context of the electoral system?

A 49% vote share would likely produce a Liberal majority in the House of Commons, but the seat distribution depends on regional concentration. Qc125 provides seat projections based on regional swing models (Qc125).